Judicial Independence, Local Protectionism, and Economic Integration: Evidence from China

We show that judicial independence can reduce local protectionism and foster crossregional economic integration. We exploit a judicial independence reform in China with staggered roll-out since 2014. The reform removed local governments’ control over local courts’ financial and personnel decisions, thereby substantially improving local courts’ independence. Combining novel data on the universes of civil lawsuits and business registration records, we show that local defendants’ rate of winning court cases against non-local plaintiffs declined by 7.0% after the reform. The effect is mainly driven by improvements in the quality of judicial decisions and is more salient for politically connected local defendants. Over time, the reduction in local protectionism encouraged smaller non-local firms to file lawsuits against larger local firms. Using the shareholding network extracted from business registration records, we find that the decline in local protectionism could attract 8.4% more inward investment flows into reformed localities. This has the potential to increase China’s GDP by 2.3% when the judicial independence reform is implemented nationwide.

Non-Tariff Trade Barriers in the U.S.-China Trade War

We use Chinese customs data to show that unofficial non-tariff barriers were responsible for 50% of the overall reduction in Chinese imports from the U.S. during the height of the U.S.-China trade war in 2018 and 2019. We infer non-tariff barriers from the change in imports of U.S. products relative to imports from other countries of the same HS-6 product, after controlling for the change in the relative price of U.S. imports to the same product sold by other countries. These barriers were imposed on a small number of agricultural products, did not apply to state-owned importers, and were larger for products where the share of state importers in total imports of the U.S. product was large. Non-tariff barriers were responsible for more than 90% of the welfare cost to Chinese consumers of the U.S.-China trade war. The welfare loss to China of a given reduction in imports from the U.S. from non-tariff barriers is about six times larger than an equivalent import decline due to higher tariffs. Non-tariff barriers are more costly compared to tariffs because they applied to some importers and not others, which results in misallocation, and because non-tariff barriers do not generate revenues.

与政府一起投资:一项在中国的实地实验

本文研究了风险投资和私募基金市场对于政府参与的需求。作者与行业领先的数据提供商合作,设计了一项可以保证被试不会作出虚假应答的大规模实地实验。在实验中,作者对市场上的双方进行了调研,包括资本投资者以及管理投资资本(将资本投资至高增长初创企业的管理投资资本)的私营公司。本文的受访者所管理的资产规模总计达近1万亿美元。在实验中,所有被试会对模拟的潜在合伙人档案进行评估并给出合作意向。模拟合伙人的所有特征都由作者基于真实分布随机生成,被试们在事前也知晓这一点。被试参与实验的唯一激励是,研究人员将基于每位被试的问卷结果所显示的偏好,为他们推荐市场中真实的潜在合伙人。本文的主要发现为,平均而言,投资公司不喜欢与政府有关联的出资方,这表明与政府作为出资方的成本相比,政治联系的好处很小。本文同时发现,国有企业并不讨厌与政府有关联的出资方,而这种厌恶在表现最好的资本管理公司中最明显。通过进一步研究和调查,本文发现,决策过程中的政治干预是导致政府资本不受欢迎的主要机制。作者们将实验结果与从工商登记数据中得到的真实匹配结果相结合,构建了一个双边的“搜索匹配”模型,进而阐释了政府参与如何塑造市场结果。总体而言,本文的研究结果印证了政企关系中的“掠夺之手“解释,反映了政府希望保持对私营部门的控制。

China’s Financial System and Economy: A Review

China’s financial system has been integral to its spectacular economic growth over the past 40 years. We review the recent literature on China’s financial system and its connections to the Chinese economy based on the categories of Aggregate Financing to the Real Economy (AFRE), a broad measure of the nation’s yearly flow of liquidity accounting for unique features of China’s financial system. While early work on China’s financial system emphasizes the state-owned enterprise (SOE) reform, the recent literature explores other more market-based financing channels—including shadow banking—that grew rapidly after 2010 and have become important components of AFRE. These new financing channels are not only intertwined with each other, but more importantly often ultimately tied back to the dominant banking sector in China. Understanding the mechanisms behind these channels and their intrinsic connections is crucial to alleviate capital allocation distortion and mitigate potential systemic financial risk in China.

政策不确定下的长期产权定价

根据在遥远未来受合同续期约束的住房资产理论模型,本文实证检验了长期产权中政治不确定性的定价。根据“一国两制”方针的历史安排,本文利用了香港住房市场在2047年后地契续期保护的独特变化来识别长期资产对于政治不确定性的敞口程度。相较于已得到续期保护的土地产权,由香港特区政府授予但未得到续期保护的土地的售价存在8%左右的大幅降价。在港英时期签发的类似合同,由于具有毁约风险,其售价额外存在大约8%的降价。本文的精简模型与实证估计的长期地契折价情况非常吻合,并且表明,房屋所有者预计将因为在2047年之后续期而承担25%的额外地租。当人们信心下降、居民对于城市未来感到更加不确定时,土地降价程度将更高。

科技能解决委托代理问题吗?来自中国“向污染宣战 ” 的证据

本论文研究空气污染监测自动化的引入如何影响数据质量。空气污染监测自动化是中国“向污染渲染”的一个重要举措。基于不同城市引入自动监测系统的时间,我们通过654个断点回归分析,发现地方报告的PM10浓度在监测自动化后提高了35%(并持续存在)。经济发展水平较低、污染较为严重的地区更有可能在监测自动化前低报当地空气污染情况。此外,空气污染监测的自动化显著增加了人们对口罩和空气净化器的搜索量,表明更准确的空气质量信息带来了福利的改进,能让人们更好的保护自己的健康。

减轻空气污染对健康的影响?香港的污染-死亡率关系显著下降

利用从中国内地飘至香港的跨界污染,我们发现空气污染导致香港的心肺疾病死亡率有所升高。但是,在过去二十年里,空气污染的影响已经大幅降低:2003年之前,空气污染指数(API)上升10个单位会导致每月心肺疾病死亡率增加3.1%,但最近的数据显示该数据已降至0.5%,并且在统计上不显著。进一步分析表明,良好的医疗体系和及时救助可以缓解污染对健康的同期影响。

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秸秆焚烧、PM2.5和死亡:来自中国的证据

该研究利用卫星数据监测农村秸秆焚烧情况,并估计秸秆焚烧对中国空气污染和人们健康的影响。我们发现,秸秆焚烧会增加细颗粒物污染,导致心肺疾病死亡。尤其是农村地区的中老年人对秸秆焚烧污染更加敏感。我们估计,PM2.5浓度增加10µg/m3将使死亡率升高3.25%。补贴秸秆回收能够带来显著的健康效益,估计每年可以避免21,400例过早死亡。

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冬季供暖、空气污染对健康的严重影响:来自断点回归设计的证据

中国的燃煤集中供暖产生大量有害污染物,使空气质量在短时间内明显恶化。基于不同城市冬季供暖开始日期的断点回归设计,我们估计了冬季供暖对空气污染和健康的急性影响。我们发现,供暖开始后导致空气质量指数(AQI)上升了36%,并使得死亡率上升14%。 这意味着AQI每上升10个点将导致死亡率增加2.2%。农村贫困地区的人尤其容易受到这种突然性空气质量恶化的影响。我们的研究表明通过改善社会经济条件,可以缓解空气污染对健康的影响。基于探索性的成本效益分析,我们发现用天然气替代煤炭供暖可以改善社会福利。

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高速公路、GDP和环境:基于中国的研究

在一个匹配双重差分的背景下,我们发现,中国发展高速公路加快了较农村贫困地区的县GDP增长,但同时降低了农村富裕地区的县的经济增长发展速度。这种差异并不是由市场准入、要素禀赋或产业结构等因素造成的;而与中国政府的发展战略相一致:也就是在相对发达的地区强调环境质量高于经济增长,而在贫穷地区做法相反。我们发现,高速公路开通导致贫穷市县采用更污染技术,接纳更多污染企业,增加更多污染排放,这与富裕市县的情况正好相反。这些结果表明,认识到GDP增长与环境保护的权衡取舍关系有助于帮助我们理解基础设施投资对社会的全面影响。

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